Predicting patient readmissions 30 days ahead with 91% accuracy

A regional hospital needed to flag high-risk patients before discharge. An XGBoost model delivered 91% accuracy.

Healthcare data and clinical systems
91%
Accuracy
24%
Readmission drop
30d
Prediction horizon

Client: Regional hospital network (name withheld)
Industry: Healthcare
Challenge: High 30-day readmission rates straining capacity and reimbursement.

The challenge

Care teams lacked a reliable way to prioritize discharge planning. Risk was assessed manually with inconsistent criteria across wards.

Our approach

We trained an XGBoost classifier on structured EHR fields, comorbidities, and prior utilization patterns. The model output risk tiers consumed by care coordinators at discharge.

Results

Readmissions fell 24% within two quarters. Nurses reported the scores matched clinical intuition while surfacing cases they would have missed.

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